Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 42.713216 50.329440 58.645697 68.366413 79.381251 91.438887 105.599122
2025-01-05 30.795501 40.787351 52.735249 67.925694 86.562226 108.511410 136.132504
2025-01-12 25.914102 37.443731 52.176618 72.057222 97.818330 129.681199 171.629817
2025-01-19 19.740459 31.013967 46.353520 68.222487 97.992356 136.441494 189.083713
2025-01-26 17.112919 28.813196 45.569731 70.529475 105.842383 152.992577 219.491470
2025-02-02 15.677579 28.030505 46.515019 75.083606 116.813954 174.067129 256.772584
2025-02-09 13.899432 26.389410 45.906968 77.174082 124.266033 190.558963 288.497872
2025-02-16 12.249617 24.665271 44.897699 78.436829 130.424919 205.380468 318.429631
2025-02-23 10.609352 22.676458 43.186186 78.352868 134.415045 217.130235 344.372933
2025-03-02 8.978579 20.423261 40.736975 76.781537 135.880641 225.091670 365.017292
2025-03-09 7.794175 18.803100 39.150374 76.410094 139.080663 235.646301 389.752622
2025-03-16 6.279828 16.249636 35.574646 72.277403 135.838963 236.081037 399.193954
2025-03-23 5.644239 15.527595 35.487760 74.589725 143.983505 255.556365 440.036420
2025-03-30 4.753219 14.078105 33.851799 74.018597 147.346605 267.878456 470.828640
2025-04-06 4.470085 13.980887 34.878248 78.447026 159.598285 295.078874 526.116265
2025-04-13 3.502321 11.960855 31.626261 74.331892 156.383705 296.669406 540.570127
2025-04-20 3.181420 11.542506 31.739542 76.807718 165.187591 318.659088 588.846920
2025-04-27 3.054640 11.633842 32.996433 81.692315 178.716755 349.234468 652.335925
2025-05-04 2.771313 11.203375 32.987920 83.933275 187.380586 371.788551 703.319070
2025-05-11 2.471038 10.642992 32.587600 85.286568 194.395574 391.734887 750.617994
2025-05-18 2.137530 9.880570 31.575744 85.196594 198.557852 406.781673 790.109587
2025-05-25 1.782648 8.929991 29.931438 83.512529 199.403760 415.870393 819.648145
2025-06-01 1.529849 8.258101 28.906112 83.114377 202.771372 429.609049 857.656449